Forecast Accuracy

Objective Analysis Forecast

You have a business to run and that business’ success depends on the quality of your planning.  But your planning can only be as good as the forecast you use as an input.

Objective Analysis forecasts semiconductor market revenues using an approach that has proven for over a decade to be the most consistently-accurate methodology in the industry.  Our methodology, which we often explain and openly discuss, involves understanding commodity market dynamics and the impact of commodity semiconductors on the entire semiconductor market.  It also is built around an understanding of capital spending (“CapEx”) as a driving force for semiconductor cycles, tempered with a deep understanding of the technology and with survey inputs from not only suppliers, but also from numerous end users of the technology.

The table below provides a review of the historical accuracy of our forecasts since 2008.  Review it for yourself to see how close we came each year.

YearForecastActual
2008Zero growth at best.-3%
2009Growth in the mid teens-9%
2010Should approach 30%32%
2011Muted revenue growth: 5%0%
2012Revenues drop as much as -5%-2.7%
2013Revenues increase nearly 10%4.9%
2014Revenues up 20%+9.9%
2015Revenues up ~10%-0.2%
2016Revenues up ~10%1.1%
2017Revenues up ~20%22%
2018Strong start supports 10+% growth14%
2019Semiconductors down -5%-12.5%
2020Zero growth at best6.8%
2021Revenues grow 6% by remaining flat26.2%
2022Total semi still grows 6%3.2%
2023Semiconductors decline 19%-8.3%
2024Total semi growth under 5%TBD

The hot links on the years will take you to short video recordings made in December of the year prior to each of the forecasts.

We know of no other semiconductor market research firm that is willing to provide reviews of their prior forecasts.

Many thanks to Dan Hutcheson and TechInsights (formerly VLSI Research) for these videos for our clients and prospective clients.