You have a business to run and that business’ success depends on the quality of your planning. But your planning can only be as good as the forecast you use as an input.
Objective Analysis forecasts semiconductor market revenues using an approach that has proven for over a decade to be the most consistently-accurate methodology in the industry. Our methodology, which we often explain and openly discuss, involves understanding commodity market dynamics and the impact of commodity semiconductors on the entire semiconductor market. It also is built around an understanding of capital spending (“CapEx”) as a driving force for semiconductor cycles, tempered with a deep understanding of the technology and with survey inputs from not only suppliers, but also from numerous end users of the technology.
While most other forecasts are adjusted over the course of the year to converge to the year’s actual outcome, and that this may make their forecast appear to be more accurate towards year-end, Objective Analysis realizes that this approach isn’t useful for our clients, who must plan their production capacity and staffing a year or more in advance. Our forecast is released at the end of each year, and we stick with that number from that time on.
The table below provides a review of the historical accuracy of our forecasts since 2008. Review our accuracy for yourself to see how close we came each year, and compare it to forecasts produced a year beforehand from any other firm. You will be impressed.
| Year | Forecast | Actual |
| 2025 | We’ll risk predicting -10% this time | TBD |
| 2024 | Total semi growth under 5% | TBD |
| 2023 | Semiconductors decline 19% | -8.3% |
| 2022 | Total semi still grows 6% | 3.2% |
| 2021 | Revenues grow 6% by remaining flat | 26.2% |
| 2020 | Zero growth at best | 6.8% |
| 2019 | Semiconductors down -5% | -12.5% |
| 2018 | Strong start supports 10+% growth | 14% |
| 2017 | Revenues up ~20% | 22% |
| 2016 | Revenues up ~10% | 1.1% |
| 2015 | Revenues up ~10% | -0.2% |
| 2014 | Revenues up 20%+ | 9.9% |
| 2013 | Revenues increase nearly 10% | 4.9% |
| 2012 | Revenues drop as much as -5% | -2.7% |
| 2011 | Muted revenue growth: 5% | 0% |
| 2010 | Should approach 30% | 32% |
| 2009 | Growth in the mid teens | -9% |
| 2008 | Zero growth at best. | -3% |
The hot links on the years will take you to short video recordings made in December of the year prior to each of the forecasts.
We know of no other semiconductor market research firm that is willing to provide reviews of their prior forecasts.
Many thanks to Dan Hutcheson and TechInsights (formerly VLSI Research) for participating in these videos for our clients and prospective clients.