Semiconductor Market Research

Forecast Accuracy

Objective Analysis ForecastYou have a business to run and that business’ success depends on the quality of your planning.  But your planning can only be as good as the forecast you use as an input.

Objective Analysis forecasts semiconductor market revenues using an approach that has proven for over a decade to be the most consistently-accurate methodology in the industry.  Our methodology, which we often explain and openly discuss, involves understanding commodity market dynamics and the impact of commodity semiconductors on the entire semiconductor market.  It also is built around an understanding of capital spending (“CapEx”) as a driving force for semiconductor cycles, tempered with a deep understanding of the technology and with survey inputs from not only suppliers, but also from numerous end users of the technology.

The table below provides a review of the historical accuracy of our forecasts since 2008.  Review it for yourself to see how close we came each year.

Year Forecast Actual
2008 Zero growth at best. -3%
2009 Growth in the mid teens -9%
2010 Should approach 30% 32%
2011 Muted revenue growth: 5% 0%
2012 Revenues drop as much as -5% -2.7%
2013 Revenues increase nearly 10% 4.9%
2014 Revenues up 20%+ 9.9%
2015 Revenues up ~10% -0.2%
2016 Revenues up ~10% 1.1%
2017 Revenues up ~20% 22%
2018 Strong start supports 10+% growth 14%
2019 Semiconductors down -5% -12.5%
2020 Zero growth at best 6.8%
2021 Revenues grow 6% by remaining flat 26.2%
2022 Total semi still grows 6% 3.2%
2023 Semiconductors decline 19% -8.3%
2024 Total semi growth under 5% TBD

The hot links on the years will take you to short video recordings made in December of the year prior to each of the forecasts.

We know of no other semiconductor market research firm that is willing to provide reviews of their prior forecasts.

Many thanks to Dan Hutcheson and TechInsights (formerly VLSI Research) for these videos for our clients and prospective clients.